On the eve of a presidential election, polls, which, at press time, show Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) with a considerable lead over Republican Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) – heavily drive the election media narrative. Yet some critics, with the memory of wildly incorrect surveys conducted before the New Hampshire Democratic primary fresh in their minds, say that polling is widely misunderstood, by both journalists and the public, as crystal balls.
“This notion of pinpoint accuracy in pre-election polls is a fantasy,” says ...